Thank goodness, we are now able to move on from Covid.

The fact is the government and media are way behind most of the population and certainly those of us who need to run businesses. the disgrace is that vested interests, of many who work in the Public sector servants of society have trumped private business.,

Sage scenarios vs actual: an update

16 January 2022, 7:00am

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine showing Covid beds occupied (19 December)Text settingsCommentsShare

‘Deaths could hit 6,000 a day,’ reported the newspapers on 17 December. A day later documents for the 99th meeting of Sage were released which said that, without restrictions over and above ‘Plan B’, deaths would range from 600 to 6,000 a day. A summary of Sage advice, prepared for the Cabinet, gave three models of what could happen next:

• Do nothing (ie, stick with ‘Plan B’) and face “a minimum peak” of 3,000 hospitalisations a day and 600 to 6,000 deaths a day
• Implement ‘Stage 2’ restrictions (household bubbles, etc) and cut daily deaths to a lower range: 500 to 3,000.
• Implement ‘Stage 1’ restrictions (stay-at-home mandates) and cut deaths even further: to a range of 200 to 2,000 a day

After a long and fractious cabinet debate, the decision was to do nothing and wait for more data. ‘Government ignores scientists’ advice,’ fumed the BMJ. But the decision not to act meant that the quality of Sage advice can now be tested, its ‘scenarios’ compared to actual. 

Sage/Warwick hospitalisations

Let’s start with the Warwick model. It published various Covid scenarios depending on Omicron’s possible ‘severity’: 100 per cent as severe as Delta, 50 per cent, 20 per cent and 10 per cent. A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) document released on New Year’s Eve said: ‘the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta’.