This morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics has boosted optimism about the UK’s economic recovery. GDP fell 2.6 per cent in November, reversing the trend of six consecutive months of increases since April’s significant contraction. This takes GDP back down 8.5 per cent below February’s levels – wiping out the recovery gains made between roughly the end of July and November.

Not, on the surface, good news. But the case for optimism comes alongside the context of what was happening in November: England’s second lockdown and a host of fire-breaks and circuit-breaks throughout the UK. November’s significantly smaller contraction compared with the March shutdown has forecasters thinking that the economy may have become more resilient to lockdowns.

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