EU So should we stay or should we go?

EU Britain

No-one should be under any illusion that the EU referendum vote on Thursday, regardless whether we vote to stay or leave, is a vote for change.

Whichever side of the fence you are on, many people will not be aware of, never mind have read, the ‘Five Presidents Report,’ authored by Jean-Claude Juncker (Luxembourgian politician) President of the European Commission.

Be in no doubt that even if we vote to remain in the EU, everything is about to change…

By, at the latest 2025, the heads of the EU have committed to, ‘unification of taxes’.

Introduction of an ‘EU wide treasury’ (of course this is positioned as only affecting the members in the Euro Currency). It goes on to say, for all members states they are committed to ‘national convergence that could be given a legal nature’.

The task of unifying a set of economic variables for the nations of Europe, squeezed into a single currency hasn’t gone well. Ask the 45% of under 25’s in Spain and Portugal or the population of Greece.

The Remain Campaign sight economic meltdown if we leave the EU

So not sure which change to vote for?

The Remain Campaign have tried to persuade us that to leave the EU would be an economic disaster.

Can we take comfort from the treasury report commissioned by George Osbourne? Can we rely on their sophisticated modelling? Surely with all our capabilities, we are able to predict the future. After all didn’t they get their predictions right in the past?

Taking all the detailed analysis into consideration, then taking the average of this analysis it’s clear that if you feel we should stick with the status quo we may in fact, after due consideration of all the variables and of course allowing for an error factor of around + / –  3% we may see a change.

Treasury analysis complication, they just don't know
Treasury analysis complication, they just don’t know

Just 10 years ago the world of banking had it all in hand and couldn’t possibly make a mistake. It would surly be criminal for the global banking industry to lead the world into a global downturn. They just wouldn’t be allowed to lead us all into the largest recession in 100 years.

Some campaigners for the Remain Campaign have form. I had to smile when John Major, the older statesman, was wheeled out. It’s as though we should have forgotten past misdemeanours. Major’s government were responsible for an earlier recession, caused by the wisdom of the EU. Some years earlier that debacle was, The Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Many of us remember the 17.5% interest rates.  As an investor in property, I remember the panic on the then Chancellor, Norman Lamont’s face, as he stood outside the treasury, on the afternoon news. Trying to justify the markets in free fall, eating £ billions in humble pie!

Impact of Brexit on UK GDP 2030
The truth, little Impact of Brexit on UK GDP 2030

Take a look at the analysis that many actually feel is the best guess as to what will happen either way.

Or do we conclude that they just don’t know? What it does tell us, that predictions are close to useless. We simply we can’t predict the future.

Or are they as wrong now as they have been in the past?

The UK, small and insignificant, as some have eluded during this referendum, spent and past its best. With our imperfect democracy, we couldn’t possibly go it alone and keep our little pound currency and prosper.

So what is Thursday’s Referendum really all about?

The UK has prospered historically through four key elements.

The first and second, are the English Language (the language of business), and our historic control of the worlds major shipping routes. Thirdly we have and still to some extent, still enjoy, a relatively democratic, anti corrupt business trading environment. Still the envy of the rest of the world. The fourth; we have a fantastic trading potential across the world, not least in part by using our contacts in emerging nations and the growing power of some of our commonwealth members.

Not convinced ?

It’s a shame that the positive case for Brexit has not been clearer, louder and less easily characterised as Anti Immigration, Racist or Economically inept.

My view is the scare tactics that admittedly worked in the Scottish referendum will have worked again with the majority of the undecided. The question is will it be enough to keep us trapped in the EU?

If Remain lose it will, be in part, because they over played their FEAR hand.

I do have one cautionary final comment though. 

I haven’t come across many people in the last month who are voting to remain.

If I’d been asked three weeks ago, I would have said, Brexit had little chance of winning.

The ‘Remain Campaign’ had done a fine job of grabbing the early advantage, scaring voters and using the governmental machine, in effect, loading the dice.

Persuading the nation that we have a chance to resist, the inevitability of the EU single state, changing our country from Great Britain into an EU Britain is wrong.

Making people bashful in standing up for Great Britain. Making a case that to want to have our own democratic control and keeping the UK sovereign, was in someway to be against the benefits of immigration and by not succumbing to the financial scare stories, is not economically naive.

The final irony is, as a nation we never voted to join the EU. 

Great Britain, in our only referendum on the EU, was in fact presented to the population of the UK when it was simply The Common Market, opposed ironically by the majority of the Labour Party and the Unions of the day.

On Friday morning we will know how the people, of what used to be known as Great Britain, really feel about themselves.

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