Thank goodness, we are now able to move on from Covid.

The fact is the government and media are way behind most of the population and certainly those of us who need to run businesses. the disgrace is that vested interests, of many who work in the Public sector servants of society have trumped private business.,

Sage scenarios vs actual: an update

16 January 2022, 7:00am

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine showing Covid beds occupied (19 December)Text settingsCommentsShare

‘Deaths could hit 6,000 a day,’ reported the newspapers on 17 December. A day later documents for the 99th meeting of Sage were released which said that, without restrictions over and above ‘Plan B’, deaths would range from 600 to 6,000 a day. A summary of Sage advice, prepared for the Cabinet, gave three models of what could happen next:

  • Do nothing (ie, stick with ‘Plan B’) and face “a minimum peak” of 3,000 hospitalisations a day and 600 to 6,000 deaths a day
  • Implement ‘Stage 2’ restrictions (household bubbles, etc) and cut daily deaths to a lower range: 500 to 3,000.
  • Implement ‘Stage 1’ restrictions (stay-at-home mandates) and cut deaths even further: to a range of 200 to 2,000 a day

After a long and fractious cabinet debate, the decision was to do nothing and wait for more data. ‘Government ignores scientists’ advice,’ fumed the BMJ. But the decision not to act meant that the quality of Sage advice can now be tested, its ‘scenarios’ compared to actual. 

Sage/Warwick hospitalisations

Let’s start with the Warwick model. It published various Covid scenarios depending on Omicron’s possible ‘severity’: 100 per cent as severe as Delta, 50 per cent, 20 per cent and 10 per cent. A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) document released on New Year’s Eve said: ‘the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta’. 

Brexit is starting to happen, as Covid moves from the agenda

Trade deals by numbers

  • 66 Number of countries the UK Government has secured trade deals with in less than two years
  • £890bn Total value of UK trade with these countries (as of 2019)
  • £229.9bn Total value of UK trade with the US, our biggest trading partner in 2019
  • £15.2bn Estimated long-term increase in trade with a UK/Japan agreement
  • £111bn How much UK trade with the CPTPP was worth in 2019. The UK has applied to join, deepening ties with emerging markets
  • £20bn Trade deal between Canada and UK signed on 9 December 2020. Both countries to negotiate a tailor-made deal in 2021.
  • £20bn Value of trade in 2019-20 with Australia, with which the UK has just announced a trade deal.

Source: gov.uk

16 June 2021

Photo by Quang Anh Ha Nguyen on Pexels.com

Over the last four days, Covid deaths (or rather the deaths of people who died within 28 days of a positive test), heart attacks, kidney failure, sepsis, road accidents have been 12 on Saturday, 8 on Sunday, 3 on Sunday Monday and 10 yesterday.

Sadly, more young men aged between 21 and 45 will have committed suicide on each of those days. In addition, over the four days, hundreds more will have died of various cancers, sepsis, diabetes and old age.


The U.K. has a population of 68.7million, probably a couple of million more since they found out that 5 million E.U. citizens would rather stay in the U.K. than the original estimate of 3 million. Deaths in the U.K. normally run at between 1,400 and 2,000 per week depending on the time of year, and we are staying in lockdown because of Covid? 188 people in ICU beds with Covid, a further 1,100 in hospital wards, which leaves the NHS 143,500 beds for treating other illnesses.

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And I, for one, will no longer put up with it.

This article is what I demand from media and newspaper. Where the hell have you been for most of the last year?

Apart from planet normal (DT Podcast), the challenge of the lies, lies and statistics has been at times lacking in this newspaper and complicit in the main media.

I hope that GBNews, Alex Belfield, and the UK’s genuine anger towards the BBC will start to change things for the better.

Last nights clear manipulation of the facts made my blood boil. I backed Boris, but he has let many of the Conservative Party members down. He has to review the data again, return to the podium and apologise.

The sombrero is now a flat cap, and I, for one, will no longer put up with it.

Telegraph article.

Fear over freedom: Here’s what the doom-laden government graphs don’t show us

Just one per cent of hospital beds are currently occupied by Covid patients, with most of those young
By Henry Bodkin, Health and Science Correspondent and Alex Clark, Data Projects Editor 15 June 2021 • 11:25am
the graphs

As ever at Downing Street press conferences, Boris Johnson’s scientific advisors deployed their graphs skillfully to back up the warnings of potential catastrophe.

The by now all-too-familiar vertiginous lines were intended to leave the public in no doubt about the consequences of not delaying freedom until July 19.

But take a closer look and the choice of graphs is arguably disingenuous: the slides are most revealing for what they failed to include.
Hospital admissions

We were shown a graph comparing the change in the proportion of under- and over-65s admitted to hospital in January and May/June.

This showed a big jump in the under-65s column, a point Prof Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, took pains to emphasise.

The problem is that this fails to show just how much lower the raw numbers are now.

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