But unlike the 2007-08 crash, the economy here is crouching, on government instructions. Unlike during a normal downturn, we do not want people out and about, spending money and increasing economic activity; we want them out of restaurants, out of shops, keeping their distance from others. So the question is how high the economy is capable of standing later on, when things return to some level of normality. Oxford Economics says quite high: they forecast it will skyrocket with 3.7 per cent growth next year, returning to fairly familiar growth rates – albeit slightly higher – in 2022 and 2023.

But there is one big caveat: this modelling assumes that Covid-19, in historical terms anyway, is a short-lived phenomena which is tackled fairly quickly. This supposes that the Prime Minister’s estimates of ‘12 weeks’ to ‘turn the tide’ on the virus are largely correct, and we can crawl back towards normal economic activity in the second half of the year. In truth, no one knows how long this will last. This is an unprecedented situation, and a lot of the companies that will collapse during the crisis wont come back.

Oxford Economics notes that its previous studies regarding the impact of pandemics on the economy show that activity is ‘delayed’ rather than ‘destroyed’, which supports the V-curve narrative, that we can spring into action as soon as the immediate threat of the virus is eliminated. But just as this is not a normal recession, it is also not a normal pandemic. Most pandemic modelling is about flu (and it factors in a vaccine arriving in six months) but Covid-19 is not the flu, and a vaccine could be 18 months away. Nor do we know if Covid-19 will come back in a second or even third wave, as Spanish Flu did. In the worst-case scenario, it could mutate, making our public health response far more complex and expensive. There are many, many other variables.