The sombrero is now a flat cap

And I, for one, will no longer put up with it.

This article is what I demand from media and newspaper. Where the hell have you been for most of the last year?

Apart from planet normal (DT Podcast), the challenge of the lies, lies and statistics has been at times lacking in this newspaper and complicit in the main media.

I hope that GBNews, Alex Belfield, and the UK’s genuine anger towards the BBC will start to change things for the better.

Last nights clear manipulation of the facts made my blood boil. I backed Boris, but he has let many of the Conservative Party members down. He has to review the data again, return to the podium and apologise.

The sombrero is now a flat cap, and I, for one, will no longer put up with it.

Telegraph article.

Fear over freedom: Here’s what the doom-laden government graphs don’t show us

Just one per cent of hospital beds are currently occupied by Covid patients, with most of those young
By Henry Bodkin, Health and Science Correspondent and Alex Clark, Data Projects Editor 15 June 2021 • 11:25am
the graphs

As ever at Downing Street press conferences, Boris Johnson’s scientific advisors deployed their graphs skillfully to back up the warnings of potential catastrophe.

The by now all-too-familiar vertiginous lines were intended to leave the public in no doubt about the consequences of not delaying freedom until July 19.

But take a closer look and the choice of graphs is arguably disingenuous: the slides are most revealing for what they failed to include.
Hospital admissions

We were shown a graph comparing the change in the proportion of under- and over-65s admitted to hospital in January and May/June.

This showed a big jump in the under-65s column, a point Prof Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, took pains to emphasise.

The problem is that this fails to show just how much lower the raw numbers are now.

In reality, there were 95,172 admissions for Covid in England between Jan 1 and 28, compared with 2,851 between May 16 and June 12.

However, a brief glance at the Downing Street graph – and that’s all the general public will have had the chance to do – could well give the impression that the situation in hospitals is worse than last winter.

This comparison is also weakened by the timing chosen by the Government.

Cases are generally distributed in younger age groups towards the start of a period of opening up, as these people are more likely to return to work in person or to socialise.

In September, at the start of the second wave, those aged 18-to-64 comprised 51 per cent of admissions compared with 60 per cent in May. This was higher than it was for the over-65 age group.

The Telegraph’s own graph – showing, crucially, the actual numbers of patients in hospitals – demonstrates how incomparably better the current situation is.

On Tuesday morning, Sir Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, revealed that just one per cent of hospital beds are currently occupied by Covid patients, with most of those young.

Sir Simon also said hospitals are in a “much better position” than last year.

The age distribution has “flipped” he said, so those under-65 now make up 70 per cent of cases
The North West

The second graph deployed by Prof Whitty to illustrate the supposed pressure felt by hospitals was problematic in a different way.

It showed the average number of weekly hospital admissions per 100,000 for both the North West and England as a whole.

Snaking left to right by month, the lines appear to rise sharply – particularly for the North West – in the past two weeks.

The problem is one of scale.

The rise in the North West is significant, but, again, pales in comparison to the second wave.

Admissions are at around five per 100,000 as of June 12, compared with around 20 per 100,000 at the end of December and then over 40 by the peak.

This was in no way evident at last night’s briefing.

On the far left of the government graph, you can just about see the end of the gentle downhill slope, denoting the end of the second wave, at the start of April.

But it would have been far more informative to have shown the colossal mountain of the second wave itself, so the public could have seen how much bigger it was than the recent uptick.
Cases by age

The same criticism can be made of the graphs showing the weekly increase in cases, which were also only presented from the beginning of April, rather than December or January.

Properly understanding this metric was further hampered by the failure to set out how the cases break down by age.

Most of England’s new cases are now among the young.

Across all ages, the latest daily rate in England is 67.1 per 100,000 (as of June 9), but for those under-60s the rate is 84.1 per, and for those over 60 it is just 12.6 per 100,000.

Downing Street’s choice of graphs need to be seen in the context that its own modellers have already admitted that they do not know whether releasing restrictions on June 21 would have caused unsustainable pressure on the NHS.

Arguably, Britain is actually doing better than many scientists had predicted. Undoubtedly, the risk of unlocking has changed as a result of the delta variant, but when compared to the turn of the year it is clear the scale of a ‘third wave’ is not in the same league as those we have already faced.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.